CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2013-08-30T02:48:00-CME-001)

(Arrival Prediction by NOAA/SWPC submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)
(Submitted CME shock arrival time taken from simulation posted here: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/)
(Submitted Kp estimate is from the Forecast Dicussion and 3-Day Forecast below)
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Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2013 Aug 31 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 1836 (N11E33, Cao/beta)
produced a long-duration C8/1f flare at 30/0246 UTC, which resulted in a
subsequent coronal mass ejection (CME) that is visible in LASCO
coronagraph imagery beginning at 30/0248 UTC. This CME is expected to
arrive at Earth early on day two (01 Sep). See "Geospace" for
anticipated impacts with this CME. Region 1836 developed trailer spots,
but remained stable. Regions 1834 (N13W07, Cri/beta) and 1835 (S10W00,
Dai/beta) remained stable throughout the period.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class
flare activity for the next three days (31 Aug - 02 Sep).
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels, reaching a peak flux value of 165 pfu at
30/1320 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels for the next three days (31 Aug - 02 Sep) due to coronal
hole high speed stream effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to remain at background levels for the next three days (31 Aug
- 02 Sep).
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, measured at ACE, were indicative of positive
polarity CH HSS onset at around 30/1000 UTC. Solar wind speed began the
period steady near 350 km/s and increased to 400 km/s - 430 km/s during
the onset of the CH HSS. The total field strength ranged from 11 nT to
1 nT while the Bz component ranged from +8 nT to -10 nT. The phi angle
switched from a negative (toward) sector to a positive (away) sector
with CH HSS onset at 30/1000 UTC, where it has remained.
.Forecast...
Solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated on day one (31 Aug) with
continued CH HSS influence, increasing to 550 km/s - 650 km/s on day two
(01 Sep) with arrival of the 30 Aug CME. Wind speed is expected to
remain enhanced, but to steadily decrease to near-background levels on
day three (02 Sep) as CME effects diminish.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Active levels were
observed during the 30/2100-2400 UTC period due to CH HSS activity.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storm conditions on day one (31 Aug) with CH HSS effects,
increasing to unsettled to G1 levels on day two (01 Sep) with arrival of
the 30 Aug CME. Quiet to active conditions are expected for day three
(02 Sep) as CME influence subsides.
--
Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2013 Aug 31 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 31-Sep 02 2013 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 31-Sep 02 2013
 Aug 31 Sep 01 Sep 02
00-03UT 5 (G1) 3 4 
03-06UT 4 4 4 
06-09UT 4 5 (G1) 3 
09-12UT 3 4 3 
12-15UT 3 4 2 
15-18UT 2 3 2 
18-21UT 3 3 2 
21-00UT 3 4 3 
Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are expected on day 1
(Aug 31) due to coronal hole high speed stream activity and again on day
2 (Sep 01) with the arrival of the coronal mass ejection from 30 Aug.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 31-Sep 02 2013
 Aug 31 Sep 01 Sep 02
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 31-Sep 02 2013
 Aug 31 Sep 01 Sep 02
R1-R2 1% 1% 1%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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